Shanghai composite - rocket or rejection?

As the broad market (SPY) continues to look constructive over its 50day moving average and small caps (IWM) plays hide and seek with its 50day moving average, how can we determine if its a risk on environment or not? I have mentioned keeping an eye on the DAX and that index is giving it the old college try but has yet to bust through to the upside.

Another market to keep an eye on is Shanghai (its open now at 11pm but I'm too lazy to check my Bloomberg terminal). Yesterday it broke over its 200day moving average but just barely...barely enough to whet the appetite of risky investors? It is hard to tell yet but another close over would definitely put some fuel on that fire!

If you look at the left side of the chart you can see how the 200day moving average acted as a strong inflection point the last time it broke over. Within 2 months the index went from below 2800 to nearly 3100 for a strong gain. Then again on the downside the 200day was a strong inflection point leading to a violent selloff that lasted until January of this year.

So something to keep watch - actually a very close eye on - is the Shanghai and how it acts around its 200day moving average. If the risk-on trade is to take hold in the US then this index firmly over its 200day moving average would be a nice canary in the coal mine. Additionally, Chinese stocks traded here in the US would likely get a big boost from such a move...you know the names RENN, DANG (the 2 I do own), YOKU, BIDU (the 2 I don't own), and all the other Chinese stocks traders and investors have become familiar with over the years.

How do you say "risk-on" in Chinese???