S&P short term overbought

Many of us traders, essentially short term whether you trade intraday or intraweek/month on a swing basis, can't help but monitor the intraday noise. Yes, sometimes the daily noise needs to be filtered out as I have spoken about the longer term trend being lower as highlighted by recent posts of the S&P, AAPL and others, but all timeframes must be monitored to fully take advantage of maximizing returns. So this chart of the SPY below shows how a key oscillator is approaching short term overbought. Can we push higher? Yes, but any advance, unless over a major moving average and over a recent high, has a high probability of failure.

Referencing the chart below and more specifically last summer, we can see how the SPY oscillator crossed up while making a higher low in late August (white circle). That cross higher led to a push in the SPY towards its 50day moving average (purple line) where it failed as the oscillator below reached the red horizontal resistance line. The 50day moving average was resistance until finally broken to the upside in early October putting a sustainable bottom in place.

Recently the SPY has acted similarly, with the oscillator crossing up while making a higher low and again, just like in the summer of 2011 pushing up against its red horizontal resistance line. What will transpire from here is likely a similar outcome to that of the last time...a struggle near this 50day and 100day resistance zone with a pullback to lower levels. How much lower is the key unknown variable here and there will be many factors in the mix to help determine a bottom (tradeable or long term) when that scenario unfolds.