Thursday, December 20, 2012

Gun makers oversold rally


Since the elementary school massacre in Newtown, CT gun makers (RGR and SWHC) and sellers (CAB and DKS) have been getting smoked. Actually, starting a little before the shootings the stocks were under pressure and then those horrible events accelerated the selling pressure. But when stocks get hit for 30% in a very short period of time there is often a relief rally...and the action yesterday in the names mentioned above are doing just that.
As you know I believe the best way to play a stock is in the direction of its trend - and these trends are to the downside. So if you want to play for a countertrend bounce which may reap some nice percentage gains, I would suggest you be careful and be out on sharp moves. But if you are looking for a bigger swing trade move and not just a scalp, then look for areas of overhead resistance (like $9-9.50 SWHC, $45, then $46-47 RGR) to play from the short side. (CAB and DKS may also fit this scenario but I believe pure gun makers will be hurt much more than sellers because CAB and DKS have so many other products in their revenue mix).
Ultimately SWHC may go to $6 and RGR may see $35 or as low as $30. Stops above according to your risk tolerance.

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