Tech (XLK) - just not feelin the love...

I just cant get behind tech. I know a lot of people that like it and there are some diehard believers of companies like CSCO, INTC, MSFT (MSFT recently mentioned as an excellent shorting opportunity into the Surface release with THIS POST), but it just doesnt get my bullish juices flowing.

If you want further proof, take a look at the XLK (SPDR Tech ETF) chart, below. To me, this screams TREND CHANGE!

*Broke below its 1year+ bullish trendline in October

*Below all 3 of its major moving averages and currently struggling at its 200day sma

*Underperforming the broad market from the September highs on a relative basis by approximately 5%

*Could be in the midst of forming the right shoulder of a large Head & Shoulders which, if true, would lead to much lower prices.

Every cloud has a silver lining and the XLK silver lining is 2 fold...it held its June lows on a mid November test and has bounced strongly since,  and its also below the March reaction high near $30.50 which on a bounce would not only be a much higher H&S top, but it would take price back to the underside of the bullish trendline setting up for a much nicer shorting opportunity.

Having said all that, I believe shorting between $29 - $29.50 presents a high probability risk/reward opportunity to see price revert back to the mid to low $27s over the short/intermediate term - approximately $2 lower - while using a tight stop on an above volume close over $30. If the broad market breaks down hard and XLK fails to holds $27, then a test of its 2011 lows near $23 is highly likely.