Ford (F) looking into the abyss

After its incredible run from the March 2009 lows to its high in early 2011 near $19, Ford is in a very precarious technical position.  The stock has made a series of lower lows with psychological support in the $10 area that was broken recently. Now it is trying to hold treneline/neckline support currently near the $8.80 area.

There are 2 ways to view at the technical weakness.  Either 1) as a large head and shoulders as outlined by the red arcs. This is the worst of the 2 views as a measured move from a break below the neckline would take the stock to near 0. Not highly likely. Another way to view the technical weakness is 2) a somewhat descending triangle (not textbook because the base is declining and not horizontal). This view would have a minimum measured move of approximately $4 lower to $5 on a definitive break of trendline support near $8.80.

The only thing that would negate the negative look in F is if the stock can regain the $10 area and much more importantly the descending trendline currently near its 200day moving average near $11. That would likely get the stock moving back up nicely. But if that does not happen, and the stock does break below $8.80 on a pickup in volume, then look for a move to much lower levels.