Monday, January 7, 2013

Well, this is a healthy rally…NOT!

90% up days on the NYSE and higher prices all around prevail. But for some reason I just cant get my head around a continuation of this rally.

What are the building blocks of a 5% move in the first week of trading?

Where is the euphoria coming from to have everyone buying stocks again?

From what I can tell this rally is suspect at best as seasonality typically helps the market early in the new year as well as beginning of each quarter when mutual funds put inflows to use. This rally is no surprise, but its not healthy. If you look at large well known companies like WMT, MCD, etc they are just not participating. But high short interest stocks out of China or crap like ZNGA and DRYS are rallying hard. Does this support a continuation of the recent rally?

SPY is +4.9% since 12/31 lows...the s&p500 high beta index is +7.4% over the same time. This data shows that this is a high beta rally where crap stocks are leading the charge.

Also, the ratio of s&p 500 stocks to s&p500 high beta index is at the same level from April 2, 2012 when the market made an intermediate term peak at SPY $142 before falling to $136 (4%) in 2 weeks.


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